Picking Winners at the 93rd Annual Academy Awards

The 93rd Annual Academy Awards hits airwaves Sunday, April 25th, 2021 at 8:00pm on ABC.

For those handicapping at home, here are the guesses of Buffalo film fanatics Christopher Schobert and myself (regular contributor William Altreuter was unfortunately unable to particpate this year).


Jared Mobarak:

This year’s Oscars suddenly feels like the Grammys now that we have titles from multiple years vying against each other due to the COVID-19 voting extension. It’s not as weirdly complex as that ceremony (there’s still an obvious cut-off and movies, unlike albums, don’t have pieces of themselves hitting the public at different times), but it’s still tough to pull my brain out of what’s familiar to wrap my head around what’s been changed.

The good news is that Oscar fare wasn’t affected too much by the pandemic. The studio blockbusters that did get pushed to wait for theaters to reopen might have earned a couple technical nominations, but I don’t think we’d have seen many of them on the below lists regardless. So anyone saying this line-up “deserves an asterisk” or that the field was “woefully shallow” should stop talking right now in my opinion. The only film that’s truly missing is Never Rarely Sometimes Always and that truth isn’t COVID-related at all. No that one is because The Academy is still prone to politically-motivated impulses rather than a true recognition of the art form they’re supposed to be championing.

Besides that (and a few other individual snubs we’ll surely talk about below), however, this year’s nominees really did follow the blueprint critics groups have been hypothesizing since last fall. We’ll see how things shake out where so-called “frontrunners” are concerned, but I have to admit things unfolded as well as one could expect. Could those films on this list that released in 2021 have made the same impact in December without extending the voting deadline and drawing this process out? You betcha. The only real issue here is therefore that The Academy may have preemptively played themselves out of the public’s consciousness by waiting unnecessarily and refusing to not backtrack months ago.

Christopher Schobert:

Not gonna lie—I’m not sure I’ve been less interested in the Oscars or considered them less relevant than I do in 2021. It is not a question of quality; I believe there were some fantastic films released in the last 12-plus months. But it feels there was nothing that thoroughly captured the zeitgeist. For good reason obviously. That makes for a season that feels utterly dull, however.

Still, here we are. And there are films here that deserve recognition. The greatest artistic achievement of 2020—Steve McQueen’s Small Axe—is not represented, but that’s a long story. So, I’ll stop my complaining and get to predicting.  

Oh, will I watch the Oscars this year? Sheesh, I’m not sure. Perhaps, like the Sabres, it will be background noise while I do other things …


Jared:

We start off with a bang where I’m concerned because, despite these five pretty much being the consensus picks, only one made my personal list. Give me Jane Adams in She Dies Tomorrow. Give me Essie Davis in Babyteeth and Valerie Mahaffey in French Exit and Jennifer Ehle in Saint Maud. This category was stacked so much deeper than most of the conversations that have surrounded it.

The one that does translate is my #1: Yuh-jung Youn. And, honestly, I think she’s taking the trophy. That Minari over-performed in many people’s opinions shows that the voters took to its story and that fact gives her a leg up.

As long as it’s not Maria Bakalova (a performance I thought was just fine before receiving an interesting and unsolicited email from “Gomorrah” TV series creator Roberto Saviano accusing her of strangely refusing to correct interviewers that believe she’s on the show when it is actually Boryana Manoilova) I’ll be happy. Still a bit shocked she made it this far.

Chris:

Jared, I love your alternate picks here, and adored Yuh-jung Youn. Outside of Glenn Close, I actually feel this is a nicely stacked category. I’d be fine with Seyfried, Colman, or Youn winning, but I’m going to ignore your Bakalova criticism (that accusation sounds fascinating, but I know nothing about it; I’m looking purely at this film and this film alone) and say I would like her to win. And I actually believe she might. Her performance was extraordinary and hilarious, and my goodness, wouldn’t it be fun to see a victory? I may be alone in feeling that way, but I’m OK with it!


Jared:

This one is going to be interesting thanks to LaKeith Stanfield’s inexplicable appearance despite Warner Bros. always campaigning him as Lead Actor. Why? Because I think it was Daniel Kaluuya’s trophy to lose. That he is now contending with split votes from his co-star makes me wonder if all bets are now off.

That’s the best thing for it, though, since I do believe all five men are deserving. Paul Raci and Leslie Odom Jr. are my personal picks despite the fact Kaluuya might end up being my number one pick for 2021—the first instance of jumbling where critic’s guild votes and a delayed Oscars diverge considering Judas isn’t eligible for the former until this coming winter. Do those two actors have the push necessary to take the latter out? Perhaps. But I’m conservatively thinking that Kaluuya takes it anyway.

Chris:

Paul Raci is by far my personal pick—was there a better performance in 2020, period? I don’t think so. However, Daniel Kaluuya will win, and I can’t imagine being upset about that. His fiery, passionate work in Judas and the Black Messiah is certainly worthy of serious recognition.


Jared:

That Sidney Flanigan missed the cut here hurts—and not just because she’s a Buffalonian. I think her debut performance was an unforgettable one and that voters would have agreed if some of them didn’t boycot watching her film because of their pro-life views. Who would I have replaced her with? That’s a tough one.

These five women were all stellar in their own right (Vanessa Kirby would be my personal pick). And while I believe McDormand is the outlier (if only because hers is the subtlest role of the pack), I wonder if it comes down to her and Viola Davis vying for their third and second Oscar respectively. They have the name recognition and clout to tip the scales on two first-time nominees and Carey Mulligan’s return after ten years. I hope Davis proves victorious between the two, but my gut says Nomadland is sweeping.

Chris:

Mulligan would be my preference, but I think you’re onto something, Jared. Nomadland is poised to come up big. I believe McDormand will win here. It’s a fine performance in a good film, but I think the other four nominees were better—and would be more interesting victors. 


Jared:

Gary Oldman over Delroy Lindo? Gary Oldman over Delroy Lindo??!! Wow. I’m not sure we’ll ever collectively get over that one. And that’s from someone who was very lukewarm on Da Five Bloods. Even that doesn’t blind me from the fact he earned this nomination months ago.

The other four nominees, though? They gave Lindo a run for his money for sure. Is there any question about who rises to the top with Academy voters? I don’t think so. Like it or not, Chadwick Boseman’s passing does give him an edge. That the performance doesn’t need it shows why his posthumous victory is all but assured.

I’d love for it to go to Riz Ahmed or Steven Yeun, though.

Chris:

Ha, I thought Gary Oldman was quite strong in Mank, but this year? Nope, he wouldn’t make my top five. If Delroy Lindo was here, he’d be my pick, followed by Riz Ahmed. However … he is not. Months ago I would’ve guaranteed Hopkins would take this, but all signs point to Boseman. And really, seeing the late actor recognized feels deserving and feels right. 


Jared:

There’s nothing like a mostly improvised film earning a screenplay nomination when Charlie Kaufman’s brilliant adaptation of I’m Thinking of Ending Things (one that I believe improves upon the source material greatly) is sitting right there. Sorry, Borat fans.

Should The White Tiger have found its way in over that snub too? I’m honestly unsure. It’s a well-written film that knows how to use its narrative propulsion to keep things entertaining and there were a few pundits who believed it’d crack the top five. So I’m all for the surprise.

Is Chloé Zhao going to lose to either of them? No. The Father and One Night in Miami … moving from stage to screen will give her a good fight, but Nomadland is too entrenched in everyone’s consciousness right now. That she also crafted this beautiful, human tale from what I believe was a much broader book about the community her character exists within only improves those chances.

Chris:

Outside of Tiger, any of these nominees could pull off a win. (Yep, even Borat.) But I believe Zhao takes it.


Jared:

I have no idea what the frontrunner here is. My personal pick is Sound of Metal, but I’m not sure it has the legs. Judas is solid, Minari has heart, and Promising Young Woman has panache, but I’m not sure they do either.

So while it’s the most “Oscar-y” of the bunch and perhaps the nomination that earns the loudest groans, would anyone be surprised if Aaron Sorkin takes this statue home? I can see his name being enough to sway those on the fence because The Trial of the Chicago 7 is very entertaining despite it playing fast and loose with history. So cue the grumbling—unless Minari somehow sneaks in and steals it.

Chris:

I think Chicago 7 is the year’s worst Oscar nominee, period. Annnnnnd I think it wins here. D’oh.


Jared:

Marvel might as well cut their trailer for The Eternals with the words “directed by Oscar-winner Chloé Zhao” right now. I don’t see how she can lose this one. It’s impossible that Kathryn Bigelow remains alone as the only woman to win this category.

I will say this, though: good on the voters for this mix. Old guard (Fincher) meets new guard (Fennell) meets foreign film guard (both in America with Chung and out with Vinterberg). It’s an eclectic bunch that carries a diversity level I’m not sure we’ve seen (although it can obviously still get much better). Hopefully it’s a positive sign for the future and not a fluke.

Chris:

Chloé Zhao is not losing, and considering her work with Nomadland and The Rider, it’s difficult not to feel happy for her. However, wouldn’t Vinterberg, or even Fennell, be exciting?


Jared:

I said it’s sweeping and my mind hasn’t changed: Nomadland.

Can’t say I’m disappointed with the other nominees, though. Mank is probably the weakest of the bunch with Chicago 7 standing beside it as holdovers of Oscars-past, but neither is an egregious inclusion. I’m most surprised by The Father and Promising Young Woman making their way onto the list since Judas, Sound of Metal, and Minari were always knocking on the door since their release. One of them might still force an upset, but I highly doubt it.

Chris:

Nomadland is the winner, and as long as that means Trial of the Chicago 7 is kept out of the top slot, I’ll be pleased.



Jared Mobarak

Supporting Actress:
Yuh-jung Youn
(Minari)

Supporting Actor:
Daniel Kaluuya
(Judas and the Black Messiah)

Lead Actress:
Frances McDormand
(Nomadland)

Lead Actor:
Chadwick Boseman
(Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Adapted Screenplay:
Chloé Zhao
(Nomadland)

Original Screenplay:
Aaron Sorkin
(The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Director:
Chloé Zhao
(Nomadland)

Best Picture:
Nomadland


Christopher Schobert

Supporting Actress:
Maria Bakalova
(Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Supporting Actor:
Daniel Kaluuya
(Judas and the Black Messiah)

Lead Actress:
Frances McDormand
(Nomadland)

Lead Actor:
Chadwick Boseman
(Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Adapted Screenplay:
Chloé Zhao
(Nomadland)

Original Screenplay:
Aaron Sorkin
(The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Director:
Chloé Zhao
(Nomadland)

Best Picture:
Nomadland

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